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Global Population at the Time of Abraham

5/31/2014

16 Comments

 
PictureThe Standard of Ur
According to Genesis 11, Abraham was born approximately 250 years after the flood.  However, the accounts which are recorded in chapters 10 through 25 of the book of Genesis seem to describe a region that is heavily populated.  There are dozens of cities or nations mentioned by name in these accounts, and many of them are described as having their own cultures, governments and infrastructures.  I have had several skeptics point out to me that it is not possible for a population to increase from just 8 individuals to a size large enough to support so many separate cultures.  In fact, at the current average growth rate of 1.14%, there would only have been 136 people on earth at the time that Abraham was born.  That’s certainly not enough to account for all the cities mentioned in these chapters of Genesis, and this is often cited as evidence against the biblical account.

The solution to this contradiction involves two simple observations of the record given in the book of Genesis.  First, the generations close to the flood had longer lifespans than we do today.  And second, these generations had higher birth rates than we do today.  When we combine these two observations, we can easily see the possibility that the population at the time of Abraham would be significantly higher than just 136 individuals, but the Bible actually gives us enough information to make some very reasonable estimates of just how much larger.

Longer Life Spans

Genesis 9:28 tells us that Noah lived 350 years after the flood, so he was still alive at the time of Abraham's sojourn in Egypt (Abraham was still under 100 at that time - Genesis 21:5).  According to Genesis 11, Shem lived 502 years after the flood.  In fact, all the firstborn sons from Shem to Abraham were still alive at the time of Abraham's birth.  This statement is limited to the firstborn only because they are the only ones for whom the Bible gives us the length of their lives.  It is therefore not improbable to conclude that most of the other sons enjoyed similar lifespans, nor is there any reason to assume that this length of life was limited to the generations of Shem.  Japheth, Ham, and their sons most likely were alive at the time of Abraham as well. 

Now, of course, most skeptics claim that the long life spans recorded in Genesis are fictitious, but that claim does not take into account the fact that these life spans correspond to an exponential decay curve that would be very difficult to fabricate.  This fact has been documented in several papers, but an excellent overview of it can be found on Dr. J. Wile’s blog post “Patriarch Age and Genetics.” 

Higher Birth Rate

There are 70 descendents of Japheth, Shem, and Ham mentioned by name in Genesis 10.  Arphaxad and Salah each have only one of their sons mentioned, but we know from Genesis 11 that they each bore at least two giving us a minimum listing of 72 sons in Genesis 10.  There are 14 fathers listed in this chapter which would give us an average of 5.14 sons per father.  If we assume 1:1 ratio between sons and daughters, then this would give us an average of 10.28 children per father.  This may seem a bit excessive until we consider that Abraham, who did not begin fathering children until he was 100 years old, is recorded as having at least 8 sons (Genesis 25:1-6). 

Putting it all Together

There are 9 generations listed for the line of Shem in Genesis 11.  If we assume that there were no deaths within the first 250 years, and if we assume that each man fathered 5 sons, then we can calculate the size of Shem’s family by 5 times itself 9 times.  This gives us a total of 1,953,125 male descendents of Shem at the time of Abraham.  If we do the same for Japheth and Ham, we arrive at 5,859,375 males.  Then, if we assume a 1;1 male to female ratio, we arrive at a world population estimate of 11,718,750 people at the time of Abraham.  11 million people would be more than enough to account for the heavy population which is apparent in the Genesis account.
16 Comments
Dave Tomkiel link
6/1/2014 10:12:32 am

Or you could look at the sixth day creation,and get rid of all the supposition. Adam and eve is not a recap of the first,the sixth day man is the ethnos,so you can put away all noahs children being the progenitors of the races.just let God's word speak for itself.

Reply
Tim
3/10/2017 06:55:50 pm

Huh? Can you string together some more words? If you want people to understand your point of view, you can't just state your own jargon or hidden knowledge to justify your position.

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Gary
1/29/2018 02:45:55 pm

But if you wish to let the bible speak for itself, as you yourself suggest, then the point of the matter is that Noah's children are in fact the progenitors of the races. This means that the mathematics worked out by the author of this site are reasonable. I wouldn't say that his numbers are exactly correct, but I would say they are reasonable. His basis for being so convincing is that his explanation is based on Scripture.

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Barcus
3/30/2022 01:57:33 am

Abraham was 86 when he began fathering and had 9 sons, not 8. Ishmael.

Very good! This is what I visited for:
world population estimate of 11,718,750 people at the time of Abraham.

Reply
Janet Ellis
10/12/2015 12:52:10 pm

I found this a very helpful and logical explanation to all the cities and governments that I just read about in Gen 14. Thanks. TGBTG (to God Be the Glory)

Reply
Ramzan Muhammad
2/20/2020 01:51:49 pm

Nothing can be more reasonable then this one I think.

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Ray
9/10/2018 07:17:16 am

Well done. We often read of archaeologists finding "ancient" cities arond the world that are reported to be thousands of years old. But of course if the world population grew rapidly so did building the cities. An interesting book is by Thor Heyerdahl "Early man and the ocean" which explains how civilization spread via rivers and the sea nullifying many assumed "facts" (eg that it took thousands of years for Asians to cross the Bering straight during the "ice age". )

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David
1/10/2020 04:36:57 pm

Flood 2370 bce
Abraham born 2018 bce
352 year's have made a mistake

Reply
Daniel
11/1/2021 09:32:22 am

I came to my own conclusion using a very conservative method to estimate global population at the time of Abraham. If we assume that Earth was created at 4000 BC and that the flood happened 1656 years after creation, then that would put it at 2344 BC. Assuming Abraham was born around 2000 BC as most scholars suggest, this gives 344 years to increase population growth.

We start with 8 people in the post-flood world (Noah, 3 sons, and 4 wives). If we assume that the 8 people (4 women) birth 1 person per year, that would total 4 people per year. I then apply another assumption of waiting until the 90th year before the first generations begin birthing children since in the Genesis account Shem, Ham, and Japheth began birthing children at age 100. But here's an important note, since it mentions their children on average began having children at age 30, I will apply a multiplier effect of 3x since 30 divided by 90 is 1/3 and the inverse would imply 3x.

This gets me to a total number of 9,846,401 people at the time of Abram's approximate birth at 2000 BC.

I have 4 children being birthed per year from years 1 to 90 after Noah and the 3 sons leave the Ark. At year 91 I sum up the number of children from years 1 through 10 which equals 40 (4 children per year x 10). Assuming equal ratio of men/women, we now have 24 women birthing new children at 1 child per women to total 24 new additional children in year 91. This then increase an incremental 2 children (for each new generation that is now old enough to have children, assumption above is at age 90) per year until 171 years after Noah leaves the Ark, we reach a point of compound math where the prior generations overlap the point where we increased new birthing mothers from the first time. This then compounds a new growth rate at a faster rate of growth as there are more women eligible for birthing until we get to the year of 2000 BC (344 years after Noah leaves the Ark) and if we sum up all the people born we would have 3,282,134 and then adjusting for the fact that Shem, Ham, Japheth's descendants began having children much earlier (starting at age 30 vs. their first children at 90-100 years old), we need to multiply this 3,282,134 by a multiplier of 3x to get to a realistic global population which gets me to my calculation of 9,846,401.

It's very possible just doing a simple back of the envelope method to get to the number of people implied in the Genesis account by the time Abram (Abraham) is born.



Note:
Remember when we are talking about smaller numbers of people (8 at beginning of the post-flood world), the population growth rates are going to be much more extreme which is why it's bad logic to apply global population growth from today when the entire world population is >7 billion people - growth rates will be much smaller due to the mathematics of larger numbers.

Reply
Paul
2/2/2022 01:14:11 pm

This is totally farcical. There is no way that the population at the time would be in the millions let alone tens of millions in such a short time. Every assumption is in the extreme. No deaths, lives beyond a real life span etc.
These stories are allegorical at best and, in fact, etiological.
The fact Noah, like Abram, had done nothing of note before being chosen is a key to understanding this is all etiological

Reply
Hassim
10/5/2023 09:21:26 pm

“Done nothing of note before being chosen” would describe 99% of “chosen” Bible characters. Jesus apostles? Fishermen. David? Young lad herding sheep. Paul? Persecuted Christians. Sons of the prophets? One was nipper of figs when chosen. Most of them of poor and insignificant origins…Did you not read 1Cor1:27,28 “God chose the foolish things of the world to put the wise men to shame;… 28 and God chose the insignificant things of the world and the things looked down on, the things that are not, to bring to nothing the things that are.”

A “real lifespan”? If you believe the present is the key to the past, you are mistaken. The PAST is the key to the present. May I suggest you consider how losing the “ocean in the sky” (Gen1) during the flood affected the quality of genetics post-flood.

Reply
John
5/10/2023 04:40:01 am

I beg to differ.

Abram did something of huge importance...he believed in God. Without faith it is impossible to please God!

God bless!

Reply
Pep
7/3/2023 09:27:33 am

Taking into consideration the author’s estimation of 11 million people during the time of Abraham, another persons comment making it around 9 million people, taking into consideration a contradictory comment to the aforementioned numbers… in my humble estimation I would say 5,000,000 to 10,000,000 people on the earth during Abrahams time. To further break it down, when you look at cities in the United States cities of 50,000 people who are self governing cities of 150,000 people who are self governing and other cities or towns consist of 10,000 or 20,000 people that are self governing and self-sustaining, makes it also amazing to think that the Bible is very accurate, makes sense and the miraculous power of just reading the word of God without even understanding everything is intriguing. May God be glorified. pep

Reply
Mark Whitby
8/26/2023 03:23:22 pm

Family Origin and Early History. Abraham was the tenth generation from Noah through Shem and was born 352 years after the Deluge, in 2018 B.C.E. Although listed first among the three sons of Terah, at Genesis 11:26, Abraham was not the firstborn. The Scriptures show that Terah was 70 years old when his first son was born, and that Abraham was born 60 years later when his father Terah was 130 years old. (Ge 11:32; 12:4) Evidently Abraham is listed first among his father’s sons because of his outstanding faithfulness and prominence in the Scriptures, a practice that is followed in the case of several other outstanding men of faith such as Shem and Isaac.​—Ge 5:32; 11:10; 1Ch 1:28

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Tim Copeland
9/10/2024 11:17:53 am

You're all completely overlooking the probability of failed pregnancies or twins/trips, which make your numbers a stab in the dark at best.

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Tim Copeland
9/10/2024 11:39:32 am

Would I be correct in assuming this line of interest stems from the question, "Am I a descendant of Abraham?"
That answer would have to depend on the population of the world at Abraham's birth. Not his entire lifetime.
More importantly, the idea that men of his time did not father children until they were 100 years old.... are you kidding me? because you're kidding yourself to think some, most or all men (including teenagers, right?) waited a hundred years to have sex. Remember yourself at 14? And all men waited 100 years? That's amusing.

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    Bill Fortenberry is a Christian philosopher and historian in Birmingham, AL.  Bill's work has been cited in several legal journals, and he has appeared as a guest on shows including The Dr. Gina Show, The Michael Hart Show, and Real Science Radio.

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